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Originally Posted by chadglni
Radio doesn't quite work like that. You take several million customers out of the audience and their ad revenues go down. Every day that the satellite radio programs are available ad spots are worth less and less on free radio. This will cause them to cram more ads and make it even shittier than it is. Free radio as we know it is more likely to be on it's deathbed than Howard Stern.
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Chadglni, what you say makes sense if you are looking from the outside. I know a bit about the biz from the inside and can say you are wrong. Definitely.
Satellite radio is still so small it doesn't register as real competition and won't for many years to come. Radio's audience competition comes from the web, TV & video games.
Here's a summary from one of the most respected media trend analysis companies in the world:
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Originally Posted by Kagan Research
Our market-by-market projections are based in part on Kagan?s revised ten-year projections for total radio revenues. These projections show radio revenue growing at a compound annual rate of 5.1% through 2014. Television?s odd/even cycle is expected to generate a slower CAGR of 3.8% over the same period. That rate will generate local and national spot revenues of $26 bil. in 2010.
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When it comes to ads per hour, the biggest companies don't just randomly cram tons of commercials into it's programming. As a matter of fact, Clear Channel, the biggest broadcaster worldwide, has a company-wide campaign called "Less Is More" in which they play less commercials than ever before. It's positively affecting their bottom line.
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HD radio coming soon satellite radio is on it's deathbed. Mark my words.
We will also hear Howard on terrestrial radio again by the end of next year.