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I was just thinking about all this the other day and I have come up with a theory.
I believe the only thing that really matters is how much money is made in absolute terms - conversion ratios are often misued as a gauge of performance. A few key points:
- I think the velocity of traffic has increased almost exponentially in the adult internet. That is, the amount of clicks-per-surfer-per-session has skyrocketed due to the TGP. I think there should be an index of traffic based on velocity where velocity is a function of clicks-per-dollar-spent. For example, TGP traffic has high velocity - that is a user will have a high number of clicks per dollar spent whereas very targetted SE traffic for example has lower velocity - people know what they are looking for and when they find it are likely to buy.
So, if 7 years ago converions to site X were 1:100 and are now 1:2000, one has to consider the sources of traffic at those two points in time. I will bet you that when the ratio was 1:100 the traffic was more heavily weighted to low-velocity traffic. Nowadays, there is such a high volume of high velocity traffic, that the proportion of the traffic send to site X is high velocity, and therefore has a worse conversion ratio based on the clicks-per-$ of the surfers.
For the industry as a whole, we can say that rising average conversions can be related to an increase in the average velocity of traffic.
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I died.
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