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I would say this depends on your hosting provider. You can probably go for a dedicated server right from the beginning, as they are really cheap anyway.
On the other hand, I also did set up a "porn cluster" for a provider I work with, so some of their clients could revert from their dedicated server back to a hosted product, as a single box couldn't handle the load anyway.
It sure depends on what kind of site you're running, how good the backend-code is, what software is used for the server itself and how well it's configured.
If your provider knows what he's doing, you may never really "need" a dedicated box. If you think you know it better than they do - go for it right from the beginning.
just my 2 cents,
Markus
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