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The most inspiring success stories are the ones which have someone coming up with an original idea that takes off. But successes (and failures) of that sort are the minority and in any industry most people will be trying to make their money by copying existing ideas.
Which is fine as such, except that it apparently doesn't occur to very many that the more competition they face, the better they have to be in order to succeed. As far as our industry is concerned, the goldrush has been over for a while and in future, even skilled bandwagon spotters are going to find the opportunities few and far between.
That is not to say there isn't still plenty of money in online adult entertainment. In fact, the professional operators who are slowly replacing the early cowboys, are going to be forced to put more emphasis on market growth, since it is becoming increasingly unproductive to fight over existing business. But that growth is unlikely to be very fast or happen very quickly, not least since first we face two or three years of consolidation as operators with deep pockets go shopping for other businesses.
We are already seeing that trend taking shape and even the beginnings of the next: that of sponsors attempting to control their whole supply line, by buying up traffic sources, bringing well-known designers and/or photographers in-house, etc. That again seems to be a - usually painful - phase all industries pass through on their way to maturity (it seems like a logical step, but very rarely works).
With all this, it could be five years or more before the "big boys" finally start to focus on their core businesses and the industry can begin to move forward. But will there be good news, even then, for affiliates?
Unless someone believes that our industry is not bound by the same rules which ultimately govern every other, the affiliate role - as we have known it so far - can have no long-term future. You only have to consider the ridiculous lengths some sponsors go to here to get affiliate signups, to realize how expensive affiliates are becoming. And once sponsors do settle down and look more closely at their businesses, they will also realize how much they are damaged by the lack of control that is intrinsic to current affiliate programs.
The good news for smaller operators is that the bigger the industry leaders get, the harder it will be for them to deal with specialized market sectors (not only in terms of taste, but also presentation), or react quickly to new trends. So those who can reach and satisfy customers outside the mainstream should continue to do well as should people sharp enough to spot potential bandwagons early.
That said, if the painfully slow and half-hearted takeup of blogs and now RSS feeds are any guide, there will not be too many in that latter group...
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