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Originally Posted by jayeff
Civil war in Iraq could not only provide an exit strategy, but viewed within the context of US foreign policy in the Middle East since the 1920's - the primary purpose of which has been to keep the region unstable - it would represent success for the whole operation there.
I have been arguing since before the invasion ever happened, that its sole purpose was to replace a stable regime with chaos. The sectarian divisions in Iraq made that outcome almost inevitable: 20% of the country is Kurd, 35% Sunni and 45% Shi'a. Although the Shia's are the largest single group, they are not a majority and they have no experience of power.
To believe the "democracy for Iraq" line which replaced the WMD scare tactics when they were discredited, required anyone with a knowledge of the history of the region to believe there had been a complete about face in US policy. There was no evidence of that, nor anything to suggest a motive for such a dramatic change.
And if somehow the unlikely were made to happen, the numbers dictate that democracy in Iraq would give the Shi'as the most influence, moving Iraq towards closer ties with Iran, the Shi'as spiritual home. Yet barely 20 years earlier (remember the Iran-Contra affair?), the US was busy fomenting the war between these two countries, supplying both sides with weapons, intelligence and advice. In any case, how likely is it that the US has the slightest intention of letting both the 2nd- and 3rd-largest oil reserves be controlled by anti-US regimes?
Simplistically the past 80 years have all been about oil. Unfortunately the policies we pursued to keep cheap oil flowing also encouraged Arab nationalism and religious fundamentalism: both with a distinct anti-US slant. Their rise meant that the Iran-Iraq war was the last time we were able to act covertly in the region to any significant effect, yet doing nothing to slow these trends down would surely mean that the unpopular regimes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would be overthrown sooner rather than later. IMO the main reason for the invasion of Iraq was to buy some time for the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
There isn't much point in blaming any recent presidents for this mess, because by about 1970 we were pretty much out of choices. Earlier administrations could have followed a less hawkish policy and done more to wean us away from Arab oil. But because we wasted all those years, I suspect policy now is dictated more by last-ditch pragmatism than by any optimism for the long term.
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Wow - this is very well written and very close to the truth.
The past eighty years have been about oil. It's surely the cause of Pearl Harbor, and the US offically entering WWII.
There is no such thing as an "exit strategy". It simple terms you don't really know what your gonna face until you get there. When Germany surrendered in WWII, how long did it take for the Marshall Plan (The rebuilding of Europe) to go into effect? WWII ended in 1945 in Europe, yet the Marshall Plan didn't see light until 1947. Seems to me there wasn't much of an exit strategy there either.
I surely don't see any pictures of starving children in Iraq, so it's all good.
I have mixed feelings about Iraq. On one hand, it seems like Bush Jr is trying to settle his father's debts. On another hand, Iraq is a hold over of the Kuwaiti war where Iraq needed to be spanked and ten years later they clearly haven't learned their lesson.
The current crap with Iran is also interesting. Fuck it already, let them have their nukes. I don't see how it changes anything. Think Iran can challenge Isreal with a nuclear bomb? The Russians had nukes for the past sixty years and didn't really seem to change much. Yeah, it put fear in the hearts of everyone both in the US and USSR, but at the end of the day neither side could launch because they know they would be destroyed. If a nuke goes off in Isreal, Iran will be destroyed in the following few hours. Iran having nukes isn't going to change the politcal landscape of the Middle East.
The Middle East is a crying shame. They have all of this oil and the wealth that goes with it, yet the bulk of their population lives in sub-standard conditions. Sixty years from now when the oil runs out no one will give a fuck about the Middle East. And then they'll really be fucked.