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I am no expert but comparing one month by month is not exactly scientific and is full of holes that could skew the results.
How about looking at people who do rev and looking at average retention rates across the board who promote it to get an idea of what type of traffic is doing what and for how long then deciding if the promoted sponsor is keeping traffic converted and returning or not.
If the average retention rate is really small but you can hammer more traffic to the site than they did then the ppc route would be your best bet, but if you think you can send traffic that will want to stay with the site better than others and their stats show you that indeed what you are sending is on average returning then your revshare is going to do it.
Just seems like someone switching between monthly campaigns back and forth, back and forth is not going to give you a true answer, look at multiple people running differant campaigns and look at their traffic source
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