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Very good idea [Labret]
However, I agree with what Backov said.
You are very unlikely to catch a large shaving sponsor. Unless you have the participation of someone with a massive amount of traffic, i.e. the exit traffic from another sponsor, an extended period of time, and the sponsor is fairly unsophisticated in their approach to shaving.
I would add to Backov?s statements that said sponsor would probably "smooth" the shaving over time. That way they could adjust ratios to keep people happy and making a certain amount of money per click or unique visitor sent. The sponsor knows what their magic ratio numbers are for their business model to be profitable. They also know the maximum amount that they can afford for each of those ratios so they can remain profitable.
I.E. [X trials | X conversions to joins | X rebills | X upsells | X from "rejoins"]
=> X amount per unique max per each ?class? of webmaster.
With the knowledge of the maximum payout rates, the sponsor could aggregate the data from individual affiliates and create a systematic approach of shaving each ?class? of webmaster. Whales convert a such and such for joins, conversion and rebills, upsells etc. Smaller webmasters at such and such etc..
By smoothing the shaving over time, the sponsor could average the joins over time to pay out a specific average click to certain accounts, or even whole "classes." The sponsor knows how much they will be able to pay for each unique from each "class," it is only a matter of when they will pay out the money.
The other important note is that each sponsor may have a certain ?honeypot? that they shave. The third exit pop-up chain has no affiliate links randomly during your traffic. How many of us actually go through and check the chained consoles? It is impossible to check every single unique visit.
Not to sound discouraging....
Frank W. brings up an important point involving Game Theory.
Essentially, you should start by constructing the best ways to shave different types webmasters. Then devise ways to defeat the those systems of shaving. Hopefully, that eliminates the most obvious systems of shaving. The higher the barrier to devise a system of shaving, the less likely sponsors are to shave.
Your group can probably discourage quite a few smaller and mid-tier sponsors from shaving, by modeling how sponsors _would_ shave, and then devising a methodology to test sponsors over an extended period of time say 6 months.
Definitely keep the data private for an extended period of time say 6 months, as that turns up the heat. Also, a few "trusted" people should hold the final assumptions that will be made in regards to testing the sponsors. That way 3 of you hold the keys, and the rest are sheep who are told to "buy here."
That keeps the sponsors from implanting people to illicit information =}
Hope my ramblings make sense. As this is a good topic.
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