I doubt it will happen in 12 months.. if ever. Look at ICQ. It's been the shittiest IM client for years but all us adult people use it still. Unless they can think of a really great reason people should use them over Yahoo / MSN / ICQ / AIM its just not going to happen. Most people don't like learning new programs with new quirks etc.
I personally think Google Talk is kind of cool, but I am basically a computer geek.
