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Yep there is no accurate way to determine what anybody is bidding on adwords. The traffic guesstimator is crap, don't believe it. I once bid $120 just for shits and giggles on a very competitive keyword, thinking I'd be number one and no way adwords would actually charge me that much...
Well 2 clicks later, I paid $109 per click for a total of $218 for TWO clicks and the kicker is I was in the FOURTH spot for that keyword.
Adrank is determined by CTR x QSA x Bid x the number of times some guy in japan with the last name Wang farted and it smelled like eggs on January 3rd, 1987. It's not possible to figure out on purpose so they can bend you over repeatedly and all you can do is go to overture. (not that I'm bitter...)
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