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No. The party is only just beginning. This year many scientists are predicting will be the year we will have exhausted 50% of all the oil reserves. The trouble is that the second half is the hardest half and will be slow and difficult to produce. Therefore demand will dramatically exceed supply as supply falls by 500,000 barrels per year to start with.
Since 1998 oil went from $7/barrel to $70/barrel - I think you will see this rise continue for another 7 years at least because there is nothing waiting in the wings to replace diminishing oil supplies. If the US govt had invested in renewables a couple of decades ago the transition would not be so dramatic. But seeing as renewables are only 1% of all energy in the US and seeing as nuclear power stations take up to 20 years to bring on line, and also seeing as natural gas is also running out, energy prices still have a long way to go before they top out.
In 1998 $70/barrel would have been unthinkable. Today $500/barrel is unthinkable - but that would be the equivalent percentage increase by 2012/13.
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