GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - View Single Post - Housing Bubble To Burst 50% Says Templeton

Big E · 08-16-2005, 08:53 AM

Housing doesn't "burst".. it just deflates slowly. The housing market has definitely peaked..

As San Diego goes, so does the country.. the market here has flatten out - houses are staying on the market much, much longer. People here are starting to realize that and putting their houses up for sale to get the maximum price, but that just puts more supply into the market and that will start to drive prices down.

Then when all those 2000-2001-2002 ARM mortgages start hitting those 3-5 year adjustment periods, people are going to NEED to get out of their houses because they can't afford the new mortgage payments, putting even MORE supply into the market.

All this stuff is pretty basic.. I personally thought this stuff was going to hit last year, but long-term mortgage rates have stayed inexplicably low (even Greenspan doesn't know why long-term rates haven't risen).

I just wonder if Greenspan and the Fed are going to invert the curve (which typically predicts a recession within 6-9 months).

08-16-2005, 08:53 AM
Big E Registered User Industry Role: Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: San Diego, CA Posts: 935	Housing doesn't "burst".. it just deflates slowly. The housing market has definitely peaked.. As San Diego goes, so does the country.. the market here has flatten out - houses are staying on the market much, much longer. People here are starting to realize that and putting their houses up for sale to get the maximum price, but that just puts more supply into the market and that will start to drive prices down. Then when all those 2000-2001-2002 ARM mortgages start hitting those 3-5 year adjustment periods, people are going to NEED to get out of their houses because they can't afford the new mortgage payments, putting even MORE supply into the market. All this stuff is pretty basic.. I personally thought this stuff was going to hit last year, but long-term mortgage rates have stayed inexplicably low (even Greenspan doesn't know why long-term rates haven't risen). I just wonder if Greenspan and the Fed are going to invert the curve (which typically predicts a recession within 6-9 months).