If you've been in the biz for 9 years, you should already know the answer...
and smart "businessmen" do not need to wait til the last minute for anything, they are risk takers and have forsight. (That's why n00bs don't play in the stock market, hint hint
) But in this case, it's right in front of your face.
90% of it won't convert. The surfer wants pussy.
Over the course of the next 3 years, US webmaster will be living off bookmarks and pageranks while the US market slowly falls. When the surfer realizes that these sites aren't doing him justice, you will realize that he's left and it's the guys in Britain or the Netherlands who dominate the market.
I have no doubt that softcore will boom amoungst webmasters as sponsors rush to be the first to offer content. But in the end, the softcore market will be small, tight and dominated by trusted American name brands such as Playboy, Huster and Vivid... Believe me, they've been waiting for this opportunity to get the market back for 5 long years... They're gonna take it.
Yea... 3 years and it's over.