To anyone interested in "guesstimating" the likely effect of 2257, I would say look beyond the plausible number of inspections, and look beyond the number of actual prosections likely to result from such inspections.
Obviously, for a company to find itself the direct subject of DOJ interest is the worst way to be affected by 2257. But let us not forget the lessons of Nipplegate. Only CBS/Viacom was fined -- but how many other companies were ultmately "touched" by what CBS/Viacom did, for having to worry about FCC actions, as mere contingencies.
We need only to look at the thread activity on this board since the law was signed last week to know that we are already being affected. The disruption of "business as usual", simply for having this all to think about, could easily prove more costly to the industry -- in preemptive legal fees, anticipatory reconfiguration of operations, and the consequences of appearing to other businesses (outside of Adult) that we are under siege and a liability to work with.
I'll quote myself from
XBIZ
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The effect of censorship can be achieved without legal process and without even the articulation of policy. A climate that includes merely the possibility of political and economic reprisals, a climate of fear, is all that is needed to achieve censorship.
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