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Originally Posted by KMR Stitch
Lars you are taking out 1 key factor.
The Baby boomers are coming out of retirement AGE 60-65 ish A lot of them will be moving to warmer southern areas. Florida/Texas/Cali
The market might bust in a few areas but still be strong in the south.
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there is another mitigating factor which is not mentioned in the treatise above.
deficit spending and the iraqi war will begin to push inflation in the coming 36 months---i predict big-time inflation.
mortgage interest rates will rise this is true---but folks who got in with a low interest rate (fixed rate) amotized loan might come out OK for the most part, because they will be paying off that loan with inflated dollars.
if you have an ARM you will be mostly fucked.
if want you to get into RE now in the USA you should look for areas with good price to rental ratios---this means buying properties at approx 70-90 times their monthly market rent.
there are many places in USA you can do this if you are willing to relocate---and that's where you can make a killing in the next 5-10 years.
but WTF do i know. i basically retired when i was 35, all from real profits.