Originally Posted by jayeff

Modest success is usually achievable by effort with a modicum of skill and knowledge, so it is repeatable. Serious success is something else altogether because however much we would like to tell ourselves otherwise, luck and timing play major roles.

To illustrate: my first business success came about at the time of the oil crisis in the early 70's when I had a respectable but unremarkable operation. I didn't realize it at the time, but I went on looking to expand my business while almost all my competitors had decided to dig in until the market eased. When business took off again a couple of years later, I had a solid customer base and the means to service it, and emerged with one of the biggest companies of its kind in London.

Could I have repeated that success? I seriously doubt it. Not only was my success a product of the times as much as my decision, but that decision could have been disastrous if the recession had been deeper or lasted longer. So while I have always been grateful I got that one right, I never under-estimated the part that luck played.

Obviously there are exceptions. But it is far easier to find entrepreneurs who subsequently fail (often spectacularly), than it is to find ones who bring a Midas touch to a string of ventures.