Originally Posted by power182

The US gov. will not kill Castro, he is too old; they will let him die like Yasser. Now Chavez is a different story. I don?t usually agree with you?? but??.. the US has always played a nasty game of interference with all countries south of our boarder. I am sure they will create an insurgency (another instrument of war), finance and supply it with weapons sometime soon. Then "let" them let them liberate the country?? or as history has proven, put a militarily lead, corrupt government in place.

Regarding your topic, it?s a reasonably safe beat (better odds than you get in Vegas sometimes); I would guess about a 20% chance. You must also question the definition of ?major?, its rather ambiguous. care to elaborate?