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Originally Posted by Franck
... the estimate was about 2200 clicks a day...
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Whose estimate?
Exactly.
If they exaggerate projected clicks, two things happen: you budget more money and/or you drop your per-click bid to keep within a daily budget.
Let's assume a small (naive and inexperienced) advertiser does both these things. The first thing he notices is the tiny number of clicks (under-projected page views notwithstanding). So what's he gonna do but
up his bid, never thinking that a CTR of 1.8% probably has more to do with his creatives and relevancy than with position. But Google doesn't give a shit about CTR -- unless you drop so low that you stop providing them with revenue, and displace somebody else's revenue-generating ad.
I have seen this phenomenon hundreds of times. Adwords inflates traffic projections because it makes advertisers throw MORE money at high-CTR/high-pageview terms, which distracts them from optimizing for ROI.
j-