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The simplistic asking of this question glosses-over a number of important "givens" we'd have to know before being able to answer intelligently...
How much start-up capital? Debt service? Pre-existing traffic sources? Do you have a production contract with the girl -- or did you just pick up a bunch of content? Exclusivity? Is the site supported by staff you already have -- or are you hiring (including yourself)? Is it your first and only site -- or are you adding a site to a portfolio of sites? Are you sourcing traffic separately for this site? What is the cross-sell potential of that traffic against your other products? Will cannabalization be a factor? ETC, ETC...
But it does force us to consider the definition of "success" for one of our industry's "workhorse" business models.
All the above questions and considerations notwithstanding, I'd have to say you have a "successful" site if you can clear enough with it (in net profit) after a year to subsidize 50% of the aggregate traffic acquisition costs.
j-
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tada!
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