Hm! I'm personally convinced that there is room for a few more succesful AVS's however you have to be real smart to get in.
75 - 85 % of the avs webmasters are linkwhores (ie they don't promote their sites at all, they simply suck the traffic from the linklists). To be succesful you'll have to attract the 15-25 % of the AVS webmasters that actually can send you traffic (and sales).
Now here are some facts you have to compete with, if you can make it better than that, and still profit, I'm in.
Premium sites:
Cybersexnetwork: pays you 100 % on the sign up (30 dollars and 20 dollars on the rebill), as far as I can see with my small sample they tend to keep 55-60 % rebilling.
Adult Check Gold: depite what you call low quality content, ACG keeps the member rebilling for 5-6 months on average, which make a sign up worth 60-70 bucks.
Now let's face it; the guys with serious quality traffic are generally smart, and know how to profit the most, so they would send their traffic to one of those or maybe adultverifier, cyberage platinum or ageoath. You'll have to beat them to attract webmasters, and you'll need a bunch of money to convince them even if you actually come out with something better than that.
For ordinary avs sign ups, well same scheme: cyberage preferred pays you 15.00 for a sign up + 2 dollars referring + 3 dollars on average middlepage bonus + recurring if the member stays as a platinum customer. If we set a realistic 7 dollars on that, they're paying 27 dollars for a 20.00 sign up. hard to beat.
For free AVS's: sexkey and freenetpass are well established and hard to compete with. 15 bucks for a free sign up + especially sexkey can send a boatload of traffic for upsells, making the pay per sign up even higher. You'll need some cash to cover the initial losses to make it better than they do now!
So if you open a new AVS, you'd better be damn creative and have some cash for initial losses and advertising, otherwise you're at best wasting you're time at worst throwing money away.
But if you have thought all the facts through and still think you can do it, send me a mail, and I'm interested
Lars,
http://www.steadybucks.com