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Old 02-15-2005, 03:48 AM  
ADL Colin
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Feb 9. 2005

Afghan opium poppy crops shrink

By N.C. Aizenman
The Washington Post

Girdi Ghous, Afghanistan - Across Afghanistan, government officials and foreign aid workers who monitor poppy cultivation have reached a remarkable conclusion: One year after Afghan farmers planted the largest amount of poppy in their nation's history and provided the world with nearly 90 percent of its opium supply, many of them have stopped growing it.

Poppy farming, officials said, may have declined by as much as 70 percent in three provinces that together account for more than half of Afghanistan's production: Nangahar in the east, Helmand in the south and Badakhshan in the north.

In Nangahar, where last spring poppies bloomed all along the main road from the provincial capital, Jalalabad, to the Pakistani border, the contrast is striking.

"I visited 16 out of 22 districts and I couldn't find a single plant of poppy," marveled Mirwais Yasini, head of the Afghan government's counternarcotics directorate. "It was all wheat."

Several factors may be responsible, including a drop in opium prices after the previous banner harvest, and a reluctance to plant among farmers whose crops were destroyed last season by disease or the police.

Afghan officials, however, say the news vindicates President Hamid Karzai's decision to reject an anti-poppy aerial spraying campaign, which had been promoted by the U.S. government, in favor of a more consensus-based "Afghan solution."

Karzai voiced concerns that spraying would cause health and environmental problems and antagonize farmers; several foreign nonprofit aid groups here also opposed the idea.

Instead, the president used appeals to national and religious pride, the promise of international aid and the threat of crop destruction to persuade village and tribal leaders to curb poppy cultivation voluntarily.

Yet the very success of this new policy creates tremendous challenges in a nation where opium cultivation and trafficking made up more than a third of the economy last year and sustained many thousands of poor rural families.

"People will need other sources of income as soon as possible, or we'll be the witness to a big disaster," said Gen. Muhammad Daoud, the deputy interior minister in charge of counternarcotics. "People may even face starvation."

Col. David Lamm, chief of staff for the U.S. military command in Afghanistan, said he was optimistic that Kabul's assertions of progress in reducing poppy production would prove true.

"Can you put it under your mattress and let the price go up? Yes," he said, but he added that since Karzai told farmers not to plant, "they are not planting."

International donors have pledged millions to help Afghanistan combat drugs this year; the United States pledged about $780 million.

About $120 million of the U.S. package has been earmarked for work on irrigation canals, to improve roads, to offer micro credit, and to obtain better seeds and fertilizers so poppy workers can make a living from other crops and industries.

In Nangahar, the first phase of that effort has already begun, with plans to hire about 50,000 workers to do jobs such as clearing irrigation canals.

In a largely symbolic gesture, the U.S. government has distributed 500 metric tons of wheat seeds in Nangahar - enough for less than 5 percent to 10 percent of farmers, Afghan officials said.
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