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kane · 01-31-2005, 02:32 AM

for me I am a bit of a pessimist. Not about Bush in this case ( although I still don't like him ) but about the future of the region.

Worst case scenerio: The radical shiites vote in a majority who will then put a radical in the presidents office ( or whatever they are going to call the head fo the country ) and he tells the US to get the hell out. So we have little choice then but to leave. So the radicals are in charge the insurgence continues and eventually either this leader or one that overthrows this leader and takes over runs the country like a dictatorship and we are pretty much back to square 1 again.

best case scenerio: the Iraqi people elect a resonable representive. They have some shiites and some sunniis and some kurds and they put a moderate into the presidents office and over the next 12-24 months we can pull all of our troops out of there. This is good for us, but make no mistake this will not bring democracy to the middle east. The middle east has two things that we, and much of the world, do not have. 1. an obscene seperation of wealth. Most countries there have little or no middle class there are the very rich and the very poor and with that comes a huge seperation in quality of eductation. The very poor learn to count and read the Koran, the very rich come to america and go to harvard to lean how to run the country. And 2. the government still controls the TV and Radio and Press. Do you think the stories of Iraqi democracy are making it to Joe Arab sitting in his mud brick house in Western Syria? No, but he is being told how bad we are. While Iraq may have something that, at least somewhat, resembles a democracy they will still be looked upon by many of the other arab nations as puppet of the United States. In the end what we do in Iraq will have little effect on the rest of the middle east because when it's all over we still back Isreal and to the arabs Isreal = the devil which makes us the devils best friend.

I hopeful for peace someday but I am a realist. That part of the world has known nothing but blood and violence since the begining of recorded history. there is no reason to belive it will change now.

01-31-2005, 02:32 AM
kane Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: portland, OR Posts: 20,684	for me I am a bit of a pessimist. Not about Bush in this case ( although I still don't like him ) but about the future of the region. Worst case scenerio: The radical shiites vote in a majority who will then put a radical in the presidents office ( or whatever they are going to call the head fo the country ) and he tells the US to get the hell out. So we have little choice then but to leave. So the radicals are in charge the insurgence continues and eventually either this leader or one that overthrows this leader and takes over runs the country like a dictatorship and we are pretty much back to square 1 again. best case scenerio: the Iraqi people elect a resonable representive. They have some shiites and some sunniis and some kurds and they put a moderate into the presidents office and over the next 12-24 months we can pull all of our troops out of there. This is good for us, but make no mistake this will not bring democracy to the middle east. The middle east has two things that we, and much of the world, do not have. 1. an obscene seperation of wealth. Most countries there have little or no middle class there are the very rich and the very poor and with that comes a huge seperation in quality of eductation. The very poor learn to count and read the Koran, the very rich come to america and go to harvard to lean how to run the country. And 2. the government still controls the TV and Radio and Press. Do you think the stories of Iraqi democracy are making it to Joe Arab sitting in his mud brick house in Western Syria? No, but he is being told how bad we are. While Iraq may have something that, at least somewhat, resembles a democracy they will still be looked upon by many of the other arab nations as puppet of the United States. In the end what we do in Iraq will have little effect on the rest of the middle east because when it's all over we still back Isreal and to the arabs Isreal = the devil which makes us the devils best friend. I hopeful for peace someday but I am a realist. That part of the world has known nothing but blood and violence since the begining of recorded history. there is no reason to belive it will change now. Last edited by kane; 01-31-2005 at 02:35 AM..