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In the end, everyone wins. You will see the best sites coded in php rendering CSS with jpeg headers, gif macros, and flash menus, which will account for less than 5% of the design.
If everyone (surfers too) had 512k DSL, sure, it would be fine. But flash is in primitive stages. Not only is it very slow, but it's very unresponsive. But you asked about "The Future"- Well no one knows the future. But yes, Flash has potential. It also has potential to be annoying, believe it or not.
Right now, php and CSS is going the distance and I'd put my money on it being the future. Will it surpass Flash technology? Not even the same ballgame.
Ultimately, for graphical applications, what it comes down to is dithering the animated gif. Because you can train the animated gif. But it has a serious issue with quality.
Then there's security.
We're referring to swf as "Flack". A conjunction of the words Flash and Hack, it's that unsecure.
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