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Old 01-18-2005, 06:09 AM  
dudus
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 175
Studio - I've never seen you use the propabilities in your expanation... Without the odds / yields this is all meaningless.

Here's the deal.

Probability on a single bet is 2.6% and on a double is 5.3%. Therefore the expected yield on a $1 single bet is $0.91 (0.026 x $35) and on a $1 double bet is $0.90 (0.053 x $17). Thus the expected return is less than your stake.

Packaging the bets together has absolutely NO merit as it cannot change these odds. I could work out the odds / returns for each 5 bet package but it is totally irrelevant, betting 5 times won't change the odds.

Thus the system boils down to the doubling up on the single bet. This has indentical problems with typical doubling up (the only difference is you have a lower stake and double up more often). The system also contains classic gambler's voodoo "Don't chase the board..." - it doensn't matter if you move your number as each spin is totally independent to the last (otherwise the wheel or ball would have to have a memory).

Any system must be able to provide a bet in which the expected value is greater than the stake - this system doesn't. To my knowledge the only game which can do this is blackjack, but the amount of work involved is so phenomenal that casino's in truth aren't too worried about it.
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