Quote:
Originally posted by alexg
so how many people here are still not convinced?
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Actually alex, the first time you made the pick, each box has a 1/3 chance of having the 10k.
In round 2, your initial pick still had a 33% of having the 10k. HOWEVER, switching DOES NOT increase your odds in round 2. Your odds of winning in round 2, is 50/50 , the second empty box had a 1/3 chance of having the 10k in round 1.
It's really simple and logical. Changing your choice will not alter the end result, and assuming because you are left with 2 options that the other empty box is a greater choice is FALSE. It had a 1/3 chance of having the 10k in round 1. In Round 2, with 2 options, each has a 50/50 split. Your chances of winning are 50/50 in round 2.
Your simple riddle is playing on your mind, it is switching the probability in round 2, but telling you that your initial choice had a 33.33% chance of being right. THAT IS ONLY true when no new information was presented. Both probabilities changed when the host showed the empty box, THEREFORE your initial probability changes as well.
THE END.