Quote:
Originally posted by SilverTab
Ok here's the deal....
NOW EVERYONE WHO DOUBT IT JUST READ THIS AND TRY TO UNDERSTAND
We will assume that there is a winning door and that the two remaining doors, A and B, both have goats behind them. There are three options:
1. The contestant first chooses the door with the car behind it. She is then shown either door A or door B, which reveals a goat. If she changes her choice of doors, she loses. If she stays with her original choice, she wins.
2. The contestant first chooses door A. She is then shown door B, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses.
3. The contestant first chooses door B. She is then is shown door A, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses.
Just fucking try it on your OWN.....
If your first pick is A...
The only time you will by NOT SWITCHING is if it's really behind door A...
Now if the the car is behind eighter B or C...you WILL WIN BY SWITCHING...IN BOTH FUCKING CASE
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK
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Now that does make sense. What I didn't catch the first time I read the problem is that this is NOT random. What I was trying to simulate is a set selection practice BY THE HOST to show the empty box, i.e. the host always opens B, regardless of your selection. The end result would give you 50/50 odds if you stayed or switched.
But after rereading the original problem, it's NOT random, because the host purposely avoids showing C and and always opens another box (in the fixed set practice, nothing happens if you select B). That throws off the randomness of the problem enough to change the odds. The host is effectively giving more information in round 2, because he ONLY eliminates empty boxes.
It's also interesting to note that your odds are also 66.7/33.3 if the host RANDOMLY selects which box to open out of the 2 left. Again, this is because he gives more information to you and thus throws off the randomness. i.e. The difference comes in when he randomly opens C to reveal the cash...you obviously will choose this one.