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Old 12-17-2004, 06:49 PM  
alexg
IL4L.com
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Israel - ICQ: 162136565
Posts: 11,287
Quote:
Originally posted by Fake Nick
well , I still dont think that is accurate


let us say

A /

B /

C /


I chose C /


>> B / gets eliminated

so now it is down to A / and C /


you are now saying because it wasn't B / and I choose C / automatically the best option and most winning opportunity will always be A / ?

that just doenst make sense to me


you will have a 50 % chance of it being true and a 50% chance of it not being true


luck is an important factor in such a guessing game and should always be considered when calculating your odds


I cant understand how in ONCE case I would be better of chosing A / because it isn't B / and I choose C / initially


it would be if you dont count in luck , but who is the fool who does'nt count in luck in a guessing game ? ?
you are counting in luck, that's why there is still 33.333% that you will not win..

you agree that your chance increases when you do multiple tries..then you also agree that your chance is greater when doing it once... it is the theoretical CHANCE of winning...
of course you can see a better scale of results when you do this a million times
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