Quote:
Originally posted by Kevsh
Yes, it does. Because 1 of the 2 boxes left has a beer in it (unless you chugged it  ) ....
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But if I were predisposed to throwing away an empty box, me throwing away a single box would simply mean that _if it's one of my two boxes, it isn't that one_. That doesn't lower the chance of it being one of my two boxes though.
Quote:
Originally posted by Kevsh
People get a grip and forget the math, that's what confusing everyone. Think in practical terms, not percentages and raised or lowered chances.
Think about if you were in a beauty pageant (a real stretch for most of us, I know). There are 12 contestants left. One by one they are told by the host they didn't win until there are 2 left.
If you and a friend were betting on who would become Ms.Whatever, and did so when there were 12, logic says that each of you, on his own, would have a 1/12 chance of guessing who the winner would be.
Now, there are 2 contestants left. Each of you were brilliant: You each have 1 of the remaining contestants, but of course only 1 of you will win...
What are the odds that you choose the right one?
Would you think it's logical / mathematically / practical to change your pick?
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One should not forget the math, because math yields truth.
Your comparison, on the other hand, does not. You fail to account for the fact that the box the contestant chose has immunity from being revealed because you chose it. Thus, the fact that it goes on to the next round is meaningless.
Let's compare it to the models again:
10 models get voted for in a live tv show - all at once - and afterwards you get to pick one of them as your personal favorite.
Now, after the vote, one by one, the models with the least amount of votes are sent off. However, the model you chose as your favorite can stay until the final two no matter how many votes she got.
Clearly, in the final round, she'll have way less chance of winning than the other model, simply because there's an 8/10 chance that your model is only there because you chose her. The fact that you having chosen her gave her immunity until the last round has no impact whatsoever on the amount of votes she got.
So, by default, the 8/10 chance that she's just there because of the immunity you gave her goes to the other girl, and only within the remaining 2/10 chance does she have 1/2 chance - so, what she actually has is 1/10 chance.
In the case of the 3 boxes, the immunity acounts for 1/3 (which by default goes to the box which did not have immunity), and the initial decision has 1/2 of the remaining 2/3 - or a total of exactly 1/3 chance.