Quote:
Originally posted by punkworld
Yes, let's start with 10 boxes instead of 3. You choose 1, so you have a 10% chance.
Now, what you are saying is that if 8 empty boxes are removed non-randomly - which is completely possible whether you have picked the right box or not - by someone who knows what's in all boxes, your chance magically grows to 50%?
Think about what you're saying dude... imagine there being 3 boxes. You get one, I get two. In one of the boxes is a can of beer, in the others nothing.
If I look inside both my boxes, and toss one of them away, does that raise your chance of having the beer to 50%?
Ofcourse not!
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Yes, it does. Because 1 of the 2 boxes left has a beer in it (unless you chugged it
) ....
People get a grip and forget the math, that's what confusing everyone. Think in practical terms, not percentages and raised or lowered chances.
Think about if you were in a beauty pageant (a real stretch for most of us, I know). There are 12 contestants left. One by one they are told by the host they didn't win until there are 2 left.
If you and a friend were betting on who would become Ms.Whatever, and did so when there were 12, logic says that each of you, on his own, would have a 1/12 chance of guessing who the winner would be.
Now, there are 2 contestants left. Each of you were brilliant: You each have 1 of the remaining contestants, but of course only 1 of you will win...
What are the odds that you choose the right one?
Would you think it's logical / mathematically / practical to change your pick?