Quote:
Originally posted by MaskedMan
I've seen that explanation before, and believe me... it does make sense, but is still incorrect.
Try not to think of it in terms of one person... think of it being two boxes.
Read my post... if there's someone at box #1 and someone at box #2... which one has the higher probability?
You assume that the chances are higher so long as one person is making a choice, but when two people are, you can easily see... the odds are even.
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masked man
you have to think of it in terms of one person one guess
the reason why is because if the one person has INITIALLY chosen an empty box the host cannot open HIS box to show him his guess was wrong
he will open the empty box that the guy hasnt selected
in which case if he switches he will win
however
lets say he picks the prize box first
the host has discretion over either empty box to open
if he switches away from the prize he loses
this is the only condition where he loses
otherwise the host will always be taking away an empty box in favor of the contestant
im trying to think of how i can illustrate this point in an easy fashion