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Old 12-17-2004, 03:12 PM  
StuartD
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Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Outside the box
Posts: 29,903
Quote:
Originally posted by ytcracker
silvertabs explanation is probably as simple as it gets

your choice is not 50/50

your initial choice was based on 3 boxes

the host will always show you that one box is empty



this makes perfect sense

do not think of this in terms of only two boxes
I've seen that explanation before, and believe me... it does make sense, but is still incorrect.

Try not to think of it in terms of one person... think of it being two boxes.

Read my post... if there's someone at box #1 and someone at box #2... which one has the higher probability?

You assume that the chances are higher so long as one person is making a choice, but when two people are, you can easily see... the odds are even.
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