Quote:
Originally posted by ytcracker
MM
fuck man
you dont have 1/2 chances
you have 1/3 and 2/3
the host KNOWS where an empty box is
if he was just arbitrarily choosing a box then it wouldnt matter
but the fact is he is eliminating a KNOWN empty
therefore your new choice gives you the benefit of the revealed empty box
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Ok, let me put this another way...
Let's have an invisible man be at box #2... ok? just standing there.
Now, the person takes a box... invisible man get box #2 and stands there and the announcer opens box #3 to reveal that its' empty.
Ok, no the person is standing there thinking "ok, that was opened, so the other box must have a higher chance of being the one with the prize."
BUT WAIT.
What would the invisible man be thinking?? Huh?? Would he be standing there thinking "ok, I have box #2, and the box #3 was empty, that must mean that the box infront of the other guy has a higher chance of having the prize!"
Wait a sec.... does that mean that BOTH boxes have a 66% chance of having the prize?
Can it possibly be... that just because you're standing with one box in your hands, that it DOESN'T AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT THE OTHER BOX HAS TO GET THE EXTRA 33%??? Who is person #1 to decide WHICH box has the higher probabillity?? huh?? What about the poor invisible man behind box #2?? His is automatically the lower probability because person #1 says so??
I think not.