Quote:
Originally posted by punkworld
The third box DOES matter, that's the whole point...
But let's look at a bigger-sized example. Perhaps that will make it clear.
Imagine someone has 1000 marbles. One of them contains a diamond, 999 do not.
He says "I will let you pick 1 of my marbles, and after that, I will put aside 998 of my marbles that do not contain diamonds."
Independent of your choice, he will ALWAYS be able to put aside 998 marbles that do not contain diamonds.
You pick a marble, with a 1/1000 chance of getting the diamond.
Then, he says, "I will now put aside 998 of my marbles that do not contain a diamond."
Now, has your marble suddenly gone from a 1/1000 chance of being a diamond to a 1/2 chance of being a diamond?
Even if, have you picked any of the non-diamonds, this very same thing would have happened?
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That's not a similar problem. You have to remove equally sized portions sort of thing or it throws it totally out of whack and it's a different problem.
In our 3 box problem, you have 3 things that are each equal. In your example, you have 1 marble versus 1 marble versus 998 marbles. It's ridiculous.