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See, when you first choose, there are 3 possible outcomes. A, B, or C. You have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the correct box.
However, once a box is removed on the condition that said box is not a prize winner, and then given the chance to swap your choice, there are now 4 possibilities.
Everything changes when the third box is removed. 3 has nothing to do with it anymore. You know have 2 boxes and 2 possible variations to each. A total of 4 possible outcomes.
To make my point more obvious, think about it like this. The third box does not matter. Just ignore it. It's a given that you will end up with 2 boxes, one of which is empty, and one of which contains the prize. So why not just start there? Start with two boxes. 1 in 2 chance.
I am 99% sure i've got this right.
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26 + 6 = 1
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