Quote:
Originally posted by punkworld
Think about what you just said:
A is right and B is revealed => 1/4
A is right and C is revealed => 1/4
B is right and C is revealed => 1/4
C is right and B is revealed => 1/4
That would mean that there is 1/2 chance of A being right in the first place, and with 3 equal options, that would be really weird.
You said it yourself, the "b or c" is a subset. A subset, by definition, only takes part in the set it is a subset of.
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It doesn't mean that. It only means there's a 1 in 2 chance
after the third box has been revealed and a switch has been offered. Prior to that, it's a 1 in 3 chance, just the same as the others.