Quote:
Originally posted by chodadog
The problem with your thinking is the or. That or means there are two possible outcomes if option A is right and the contestant chooses option A. For some reason, you've lumped two outcomes into one to prove your point, when two outcomes are just that, two seperate outcomes.
Explain to me why this isn't the case:
Contestant picks A.
If A is right (1/3 chance of that):
then the host reveals B
and switching does NOT pay off
If A is right (1/3 chance of that):
then the host reveals C
and switching does NOT pay off
If B is right (1/3 chance of that):
then the host reveals C
and switching does pay off
If C is right (1/3 chance of that)
then the host reveals B
and switching does pay off
It makes no sense to me that the first two outcomes i've shown above shouldn't be considered as likely as the rest.
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You just used a total of 4/3. Think about that for a sec.