Quote:
Originally posted by chodadog
I mean, for one outcome to be more likely than any other outcome, it would have to appear more than the others in a list of all the possible outcomes, no?
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No.
Heads, tails or side of the coin.
Does "side of the coin" have an equal chance as the other two simply because it occurs just as often as they do in a list of possible outcomes?
However, in the monty hall case, something else is actually the matter: the host revealing the right box is also a logical possibility, just not a practical one. In order to get the right results, you need to include it in your calculations - if you want to work with a list of possible outcomes where revealing a different box constitutes an entirely different outcome.