View Single Post
Old 12-17-2004, 01:11 PM  
chodadog
Confirmed User
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 9,736
Quote:
Originally posted by punkworld
You're making a huge mistake by counting both the "contestant chooses A" options as options of similar size as the other two.
By that reasoning, if no boxes were removed and no choice to switch was given, option A would somehow have a 50% chance all by itself.
But if no boxes were removed, then it would simply be 1 in 3 chance of each one happening as there would be only be one possible outcome for choosing box A. But because a box is removed, there are 2 possible outcomes for box A. The fourth option would not exist if no boxes were removed and no switch option was given.
__________________
26 + 6 = 1
chodadog is offline   Share thread on Digg Share thread on Twitter Share thread on Reddit Share thread on Facebook Reply With Quote