Quote:
Originally posted by Steve_NCH
I agree we are now seeing the ramifications of too much free porn. Most TGPs and free sites offer enough explicit pics to get a lot of surfers off.
The programs that survive will be the ones that offer the surfer either original content they can't find at other sites, or give the surfer a genuinely good members area that delivers what they signed up for - not a few generic plug-ins and some tired old pics.
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Your answer is contradictory: if surfers are satisfied by volumes of low-quality porn, where is the demand for quality porn to come from that will allow sites which deliver it to survive?
If there were no free porn or even markedly less (neither of which is a reasonable expectation anyway), selling might be easier for a while. But the vast majority of surfers who are satisfied with what is available for free, are not, - except in our imaginations - potential customers for sites charging $20-$40 and up every month.
European Lee has it right. That explanation is why most affiliates and the few site owners who are genuinely interested in retaining members, have a totally different point of view from the majority of sponsors, including most of the biggest and best-known. That is why these industry names keep churning out the same old rubbish, despite years of people forecasting that the day is done for sites of this kind.
The logic for supporting such sponsors is extremely poor. We not only sell
despite their efforts, but disillusioned surfers become much harder sales targets next time around. Unfortunately there are too few really solid sites offering affiliate programs for us all to promote them. The ones using the model EL describes maintain the highest public profiles via boards like this, offer the highest payouts, and basically press all the right buttons to keep affiliates signing up. And albeit based mainly on past performance, they also have among the best reputations as money earners, so we look them to bring back the "good old days".
Nor would I forecast their imminent demise, although the writing is on the wall. These programs used to thrive for years, but nowadays new ones tend to fizzle rather than spark, and even that only briefly. There is frequently only a few months between one version of a program and the next, or the program simply withers as it becomes obvious that the sponsor has turned his attention to other things.
One reason it still works at all, is that with this model, individual affiliates are going to feel any downturn a long time before the program owners do. 2000 is commonly talked about as the year when the boom ended for affiliates and my guess would be that the program operators didn't start to feel any pinch until 2003. They are probably still able to deal with it fairly well, although the cost of sales must be steadily climbing.
Although the decline of this marketing model can only be good for the industry in the long run, short-term it will be painful. It isn't easy to completely reinvent yourself and it is very difficult to turn away from something which has served you so well, even when reason says it is the right thing to do. Yet while these programs remain dominant, it will be difficult for others to get a foothold. Thus we are seeing lots of people starting to run their own sites, but very few putting any serious effort into appealing to affiliates.
The rules of supply and demand should ensure that in another couple of years there will be enough strong new programs to replace those which are declining. But during the transition many affiliates are going to find it very hard to maintain a strong portfolio.