I think conventional wisdom would say Bush, but...
Normally, a candidate counting on new voters will end up a loser. However, there are many who wonder about this election. They feel it is possible that this election is polarizing enough to change that trend, and that these 'new voters' may in fact actually get to the polling booth.
If that ends up being true, existing polls could be upset by wide margins.
So IMO, we'll have to wait and see.
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