Quote:
Originally posted by stocktrader23
b) I read somewhere that 2/3 undecides vote underdog on election day. They were saying that for Bush to win a state with 2% going to other candidates he'd need at least 50% of the vote. States like FL that are a coin flip or close would most probably go to Kerry.
|
Loads of people are saying this, but this isn't exactly a strong, proven theory. Just because in the past undecideds have tended to vote for the incumbent doesn't mean that will happen this time. In fact, the opposite could happen if people decide it would be a bad idea to switch commander-in-chief during war.
Another factor which may play a _very_ large role is that Bush is actually not making winning undecided voters his main goal, but is instead focusing on people already on his side. There are relatively few undecided voters this election, and higher voter turnout among republicans could well turn out to be the deciding factor.