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this site is pretty well researched but there are flaws in the polls. For example the polls of likely voters VS registered voters. The likely voter polls have bush with about a 6-8 point lead while the registered voter polls are almost dead even. Even the polling analyst say that what matters is registered voters because likely voters are more likely to not vote at all.
Also, many polls are taken during the daytime on weekdays. They don't call business or cell phone numbers so they often get stay at home moms/housewives and about 70% of them are republican shich can skew the polls.
the polls in the end, when they are this close, are really meaningless. Gore was down by about 9 points on election day and won the popular vote but lost it in florida.
I hope Kerry wins. I think it will most likely be a very close election and I think in the end it will come down to Florida and there will be big controversy.
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