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johnbosh.. if you want to profit in the long term you must focus on the value of the bet. It doesn't matter if they are safe or not as long as you profit in the long run. A value bet is a bet that the chance of winning x the odds is above 100.
Lets take your bet in the Douchevina V. - Williams V bet that you won. You got the odds of 1.10 (euro odds).. for that to be a value bet you needed Williams V to have a winning chance of more than 91%. 1.10 x 91% = 100.1 .. if you are a good punter and can calculate the actual % chance of winning + have a proper moneymanagement system you can expect to profit in the long run.
remember, a bookmaker's posted lines/odds are not intended to be predictions. The purpose is to make sure the bookmaker gets enough action on both sides of a bet. So you're in reality not betting against a bookmaker, but against the other customers...
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