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I would base it on a few factors:
A. Statistically proven retention. In other words, how long would it make that 18 - 20k with no new traffic.
B. What traffic it brings with it. EG - are you going to continue to get signups without providing traffic yourself? If so, how much, and factored into (A)
C. Content costs.
D. Statistically proven conversion ratios. If you are going to supply traffic, how will it convert based on past provable stats?
IMO, those would be the base factors.
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