09-12-2004, 04:58 AM
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ex-TeenGodFather
Industry Role:
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Suomi Finland Perkele
Posts: 20,306
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Quote:
Originally posted by punkworld
You're very, very wrong.
A simple example, flipping coins. 50% chance of heads, 3 repetitions:
The chance of getting heads 3 times in a row is:
0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125 (or 12.5%)
The probability of getting the same result many times in a row is very small, not because the chance of heads somehow decreases but because any single ordered set of results is just one of many.
The possible outcomes on flipping coins 3 times are:
h-h-h (the one I mentioned - heads 3 times)
h-h-t
h-t-h
h-t-t
t-h-h
t-h-t
t-t-h
t-t-t
Every order is as likely as the others. Heads - tails - heads is just as likely as the others (also a 0.5*0.5*0.5) chance.
Getting black on a roulette table 40 times in a row is extremely unlikely. Not more unlikely, though, than getting black-red-black-red-black-red-etcetera for 40 times. Or getting black 39 times in a row and then getting red.
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yes.
__________________
..and I'm off.
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