Quote:
Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
I suck at math, I mean i don't remember what i learned in school anymore..BUT I remember that there were different opinions on it.
Let's look at it this way:
have you ever heard of black appearing like 50 times in a row?
No! It may have happened a few times in the history but chances are actually almost minimal that it will happen. So I tend to believe that while you're playing roulette, it is simply unlikely that on that particular day on that particular place black ( or red ) will appear an unusually high number of times in a row.
Ok, 4 may be still a little number, but let's make it 8. 
I know what you are saying, once again, I am saying this with no theoreticla knowledge behind..just explaining my point of view, that is also the point of view of some other people.
You probaby also heard of people who put the money on black and if they not win, they simply double their bid, UNTIL they win.
It's one of the ( simplest ) strategies to play roulette I've read about.
But once again, I may be wrong, and when you will convince me that I am , I will gladly admit it and solve this problem once and for all in my mind
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You're very, very wrong.
A simple example, flipping coins. 50% chance of heads, 3 repetitions:
The chance of getting heads 3 times in a row is:
0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125 (or 12.5%)
The probability of getting the same result many times in a row is very small, not because the chance of heads somehow decreases but because any single ordered set of results is just one of many.
The possible outcomes on flipping coins 3 times are:
h-h-h (the one I mentioned - heads 3 times)
h-h-t
h-t-h
h-t-t
t-h-h
t-h-t
t-t-h
t-t-t
Every order is as likely as the others. Heads - tails - heads is just as likely as the others (also a 0.5*0.5*0.5) chance.
Getting black on a roulette table 40 times in a row is extremely unlikely. Not more unlikely, though, than getting black-red-black-red-black-red-etcetera for 40 times. Or getting black 39 times in a row and then getting red.