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nicchick · 09-06-2004, 01:14 PM

If you look at polls, the only one worthwhile is Zogby.com
He was the only pollster to correctly predict that the GOP would make big gains in 2002 and that Gore would win the popular vote in 2000. Rasmussen had Bush over Gore by 49%-40% in his final 2000 poll. Most people in the industry think that he has a pro GOP bias of 3-5 %. Remember, he is Fox news pollster.

Kerry is an outstanding debater. He came from 7 points back against Mass. Gov. Weld to win by 6 after those debates- and Weld was a much better debater than Bush.

Also, 2 months is a lifetime in politics. 2 weeks ago, Kerry looked unbeatable and it shifted almost overnight. A lot will depend on events that occur in the next 8 weeks. 7 Marines were killed overnight in Iraq- the worst loss in 5 months. We'll hit the 1000 killed mark between now and then. Kerry is taking off the gloves and is starting to question the relationship between Bush and the Saudis. Also, he will start pushing for more stem cell research
and thats an area that a lot of Republicans disagree with Bush on.
That may be his ace in the hole - Zogby says that Bush could lose 20% of his voters if that is made a real issue.

Plus, there may very well be indictments handed down in the Valerie Plame CIA outing case, with 1 or more administration officials being responsible, and that there was a coverup all the way to the top. Remember Bush hiring a private attorney ?

So it appears than Bush hit a high a week ago while Kerry was at his low point. On the other hand, Drudge had a link yesterday to a story saying that Bin Laden was on the verge of being captured.
That might not necessarily be good for Bush in the long run.
Winston Churchill was extremely popular with the British people in WW2. As soon as the war ended, he lost re-election in a landslide.People might feel that if Bin Laden is captured or killed that the "Threat" is over and want to move on. But if he's caught within 2 weeks of the election, then Bush is a shoe-in.

The bottom line is that it is still way too early to tell. People forget that in 1980, Carter was leading Reagan up until 9 days before the election.

09-06-2004, 01:14 PM
nicchick Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 316	If you look at polls, the only one worthwhile is Zogby.com He was the only pollster to correctly predict that the GOP would make big gains in 2002 and that Gore would win the popular vote in 2000. Rasmussen had Bush over Gore by 49%-40% in his final 2000 poll. Most people in the industry think that he has a pro GOP bias of 3-5 %. Remember, he is Fox news pollster. Kerry is an outstanding debater. He came from 7 points back against Mass. Gov. Weld to win by 6 after those debates- and Weld was a much better debater than Bush. Also, 2 months is a lifetime in politics. 2 weeks ago, Kerry looked unbeatable and it shifted almost overnight. A lot will depend on events that occur in the next 8 weeks. 7 Marines were killed overnight in Iraq- the worst loss in 5 months. We'll hit the 1000 killed mark between now and then. Kerry is taking off the gloves and is starting to question the relationship between Bush and the Saudis. Also, he will start pushing for more stem cell research and thats an area that a lot of Republicans disagree with Bush on. That may be his ace in the hole - Zogby says that Bush could lose 20% of his voters if that is made a real issue. Plus, there may very well be indictments handed down in the Valerie Plame CIA outing case, with 1 or more administration officials being responsible, and that there was a coverup all the way to the top. Remember Bush hiring a private attorney ? So it appears than Bush hit a high a week ago while Kerry was at his low point. On the other hand, Drudge had a link yesterday to a story saying that Bin Laden was on the verge of being captured. That might not necessarily be good for Bush in the long run. Winston Churchill was extremely popular with the British people in WW2. As soon as the war ended, he lost re-election in a landslide.People might feel that if Bin Laden is captured or killed that the "Threat" is over and want to move on. But if he's caught within 2 weeks of the election, then Bush is a shoe-in. The bottom line is that it is still way too early to tell. People forget that in 1980, Carter was leading Reagan up until 9 days before the election.