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amadman · 01-03-2002, 04:07 AM

I am truely a stupid newbie webmaster my self so please dont mind my ramblings.

I found this link to a poisson probability calculator:
http://www.anesi.com/poisson.htm

On Collins http://buildinganempire.com

It uses an equation for determining the probability of something happening that dosent happen very often in a large amount of tries.

Like getting those signups!

Using the above tool you will see that if a site truely has a 1:1000
then its probability of getting 1 signup in 10000 is 0.00045399929762484855
so it should very rarely get 1 signup in 10000 hits.

If fact the probability of getting 22 signups in 10000 hits is just a little lower 0.00040391370432873584.

So I guess you could maybe try another 10000 hits.
But if you are looking for a 1:1000 then that 1 signup in 10000 hits should be rare.

Just some shit spewing from my finger tips :o)

01-03-2002, 04:07 AM
amadman Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: padded room Posts: 738	I am truely a stupid newbie webmaster my self so please dont mind my ramblings. I found this link to a poisson probability calculator: http://www.anesi.com/poisson.htm On Collins http://buildinganempire.com It uses an equation for determining the probability of something happening that dosent happen very often in a large amount of tries. Like getting those signups! Using the above tool you will see that if a site truely has a 1:1000 then its probability of getting 1 signup in 10000 is 0.00045399929762484855 so it should very rarely get 1 signup in 10000 hits. If fact the probability of getting 22 signups in 10000 hits is just a little lower 0.00040391370432873584. So I guess you could maybe try another 10000 hits. But if you are looking for a 1:1000 then that 1 signup in 10000 hits should be rare. Just some shit spewing from my finger tips :o)