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Old 06-19-2004, 07:58 AM  
jayeff
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Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 2,944
Moralizing and shield beating are natural enough reactions for individuals. But for the US, the Middle East is ultimately a foreign policy issue. As such, the only thing which matters is the purely pragmatic consideration of whether that policy works.

For context, start with an understanding of how much good will there was towards the British when they filled the vacuum left behind as the Ottoman Empire collapsed. One measure is that Kuwait and other countries were content to remain British protectorates into the 1960's. There is absolutely no history of anti-western sentiment in the region. How could there be when for hundreds of years the area was a crossroads for trade between Europe and the Far East?

The hatred of the west in general and the US in particular is entirely a consequence of US foreign policy over the past 70+ years. We started out driven by simple commercial greed. But by the time the Arabs woke up to what their oil was worth and wanting control of it, the US had a society and an economy based entirely on the premise of cheap oil. Instead of dealing honestly and openly with the Arabs, we began to interfere in their politics and embarked on a policy with the sole purpose of de-stabilizing most of the region. At the same time, we propped up unpopular regimes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Thus far we have had our cheap oil. But in the process we guaranteed the rise of Arab nationalism and Moslem fundamentalism. Like it or not, 911 was one consequence.

It's doubtful if we can turn back, because even before the second invasion of Iraq we had gone too far and events had gained a momentum of their own. So what now?

Except as an act of dog in the manger, we can't turn the Middle East into a "parking lot". Given the cost of occupying Iraq and what we are seeing there, military occupation of even the four main oil producing countries hardly seems realistic.

And we shall be talking about the whole region soon. Although to suit US internal politics, recent events in Saudi Arabia have been blamed in the mainstream media on Al Quaeda, the reality is that anti-royalist factions have been increasing their activities for years. They are going to succeed sooner rather than later and when the Al Sauds are overthrown, the royal family of Kuwait will fall soon after.

Then, apart from Israel, which in the oil context is irrelevant except as a divisive factor, there will not be a single even nominally US ally of any importance in the whole Middle East. Right now we are suffering because the oil refining companies are playing with supplies (and prices). Anyone who remembers the early 70's has some appreciation of the potential impact of having made enemies of all the major crude suppliers.
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