Rose

There are real questions about most all of the import brands in this country. Basic issues like, just how many of them can expect to survive at the magic $35,000 (base price) level? They are now colliding with such alarming regularity at a price point that's so ridiculously overloaded with models that there are real and growing indications that they'll all suffer. Add to that a seriously jittery economy, and you have a blueprint for disaster. Even such brands as Lexus - previously thought to be above such issues - are suffering a sales downturn.

Actually, the entire upper-middle to high-end import market is suffering from a condition that has plagued GM for umpteen years - the "too many models, too many divisions" syndrome. This disease will eventually cripple many import manufacturers too. It's a disease brought on by years of double-digit sales success, and it breeds a particular arrogance and a belief that they in fact can build and sell anything they want, in any segment and that they can do no wrong in the process.

They are all finding out the hard way now that it doesn't work that way.

Of course, there are still glaring examples of import manufacturers who haven't gotten the memo. There's the unrelenting product arrogance coming from VW Group leader Ferdinand Piech, who is intent on launching wave after wave of new Volkswagens, each playing in higher and higher price segments - not only plunging headlong into an already over-saturated market - but seriously applying pressure to Audi, one of its own brands and one that can least afford German-make pressure from below.

Or the ubiquitous example of Porsche, who keeps pushing its pricing higher while punching out too many models (Boxsters are piling up on dealer lots all over the country now, in case no one has noticed) - and whose solution for long-term stability is a brand-image-killing SUV with a $65,000 price tag.

Or Mercedes-Benz, who has started to fall into the trap of trying to "be all things to all people" and who is wrestling with unwelcome quality issues as they continue to ratchet up volume.

Or BMW, who definitely has the idea that they can do no wrong, but whose new 7-Series is a head-scratcher with questionable design cues (the rear is, how should we say - butt-ugly) and more mind-numbing technology that is virtually useless overkill in the process of everyday driving.

Or Jaguar. Or Acura. Or Volvo. Or Saab. Or Infiniti. Just how many of these import nameplates can survive in a free-fall economy? Just how much will their brand image differentiations hold up when people are strictly payment shopping?

Yes, the only thing predictable about "the Game" in the automobile business is its unpredictability. The domestic manufacturers have grown accustomed to this way of life, some more than others, of course, but nonetheless that's the way it is.

The import manufacturers, however, will no doubt find this new way of life to be disconcerting at best - and some of them won't make the cut at all - finding themselves slipping to unthinkable levels of reduced market share.

Where do we go from here? Well, some things never change. Outstanding products will still sell, but the "desirability" factor will have to be extremely high in order for manufacturers to make a dent in the market.

And the overall scope of the business needs to change radically. There are too many nameplates across the board. We think it will come down to the smarter manufacturers shifting their gears and changing their mentality in order to bring fewer models to market in fewer segments - but to have each and every one count for something. Rather than trying to "blanket" all segments, the smart companies will pick and choose where they can be strongest and quit trying to be "all things to all people."

The smart companies that adopt this strategy will end up with the most profitability.

And in a time when consumers are choosing between shopping for low payments - or not shopping at all - that could mean the difference between thriving or just barely surviving