09-25-2001, 09:10 PM
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Confirmed User
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 665
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Right now I think people are just nibbling at the stock market. Here is what Abby Joseph Cohen had to say the other day. She makes some interesting points. Although earlier this year her 12 month target in the SP500 was 1525, which she has gradually lowered over the last 6 months.
Quote:
STAND UP! TIME TO BUY STOCKS
Abby Joseph Cohen, Chief Investment Strategist, Goldman Sachs
* Boosting the recommended equity weighting in our model portfolio to 75%
from 70%, reducing bond positions by 5%. Although short interest rates
are likely to fall further, we expect equities to outperform bonds. The
new allocations are 75% equities, 22% fixed income and 3% commodities.
Supporting the expected stock price gains are (1) undervaluation, (2)
government policy initiatives to reduce the depth and duration of
economic dislocations, (3) corporate actions to repurchase shares and
engage in business combinations, (4) cash on the sidelines, and (5) the
confidence that comes from the uninterrupted operation of the banking
system and smooth reopening of the public markets.
* Last week, we provided a sensitivity analysis of equity valuation. This
included a sharp reduction in estimates for S&P 500 EPS. Under the
accounting guidelines suggested by several data vendors, these are now
$47 and $52 in 2001 and 2002, respectively. But using the more
conservative US GAAP framework, these are $37 and $47 in 2001 and 2002.
These lower EPS estimates are used in our valuation model, as is a
stepped-up equity risk premium. The projected fair-value range for the
S&P 500 price is 1250 to 1400 in 12 months. On September 21, the S&P
500 closed at 965.80; the DJIA closed at 965.80.
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